The Narrative Where NY Handled COVID-19 Well

Daily Positive Test Increases

About this graph:

This is a graph that shows state-level data, not adjusted for population of how many new positive tests were recorded, not accounting for the level of testing available at the time. As a result, the largest states (Texas and Florida) end up with higher test counts. The comparison b/w NY and NJ also reflects the importance of relative comparisons since NJ had a higher case count per capita, despite the curve being lower here.

This graph also shows that rather than there being a "second wave" in the US, it was more likely that the "first waves" hit different areas at different times. This is likely in part due to policy and partly just circumstances.

Compare this graph to the one in the narrative in which NY messed up that shows estimated cases adjusting for the fact that less testing was available when NY experienced its first wave.

Daily Fatality Increases after the Spring

About this graph:

This graph looks at the new fatalities per day across states in the US however only includes days from the beginning of June to show how an adjusted time frame can change how the visualization looks.

If we accept that perhaps different regions had their outbreaks at different times, then comparing one area's data at a different stage of its outbreak from another, doesn't give a clear sense of the situation. Rather we should look at overall numbers or compare timelines over the full course of events and adjusted by population. This is not to cast blame, but only to show how narratives can be distorted based on timeline.

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